After suspending Hamilton West MP Gaurav Sharma for breach of trust, the Labour Caucus is meeting on Tuesday, August 23 to consider his expulsion for                   “further breaches,” for choosing media over mediation.

Sharma has called for an independent investigation into his allegations of bullying by Parliamentary Services, party whips and the prime minister’s office.

But Labour’s Michael Wood says Sharma needs to put evidence on the table before an investigation can be moved by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Meanwhile, Sharma has said he “may or may not” have more secret recordings of colleagues seconding his claims of bullying within Parliament and the Labour Party.

This means any post-expulsion revelations by Sharma, as an independent MP, could come back to bite Labour and dent Ardern’s credibility further.

Worse, Labour risks losing Hamilton West, a marginal seat that has swung back and forth between National and Labour, if a by-election is forced. Sharma beat his National rival, Tim Macindoe, during Labour’s landslide in 2020.

Labour has 65 seats in Parliament, four above the qualifying number for a majority. So, the current crisis is not destabilising for Labour.

But unanswered questions around a culture of skirting the Official Information Act by avoiding a paper trail while raising concerns within the party could embarrass Labour in an election year.    

If sage counsel prevails at Tuesday’s meeting, the Labour Caucus might see a tactical advantage in moving for an independent investigation with clear terms of reference, preconditioned on Sharma tabling his evidence.

If the MP baulks at this last-minute concession of his plea for a “fair trial,” it would become clear Sharma is firing blanks and has no evidence to prove his claims.

If, however, the Labour Caucus ousts Sharma on Tuesday, it risks untethering a loose cannon.

Either way, the end-game of each side would then be out in the open.

The opposition National Party is also stumbling on the issue of bullying, with Christopher Luxon falling short of committing to a transparent review of bullying charges laid against rookie MP from Tauranga, Sam Uffindell. While a review has been announced, its terms of reference are not known, which pre-empts a credible outcome.

Both Labour and National do not welcome by-elections forced on them at this point by their sitting MPs in Hamilton West and Tauranga, respectively.

Clearly, the back bench MPs are proving a challenge to manage for both the party in governance as well as that in opposition.