Now is not the time for Chris Luxon to err, or else National Party might find itself tumbling down the same path of a downward spiral that it has travelled a number of times in the past couple of years.
Currently, the party had regained some momentum after quite a long time, including having a genuinely popular Leader who is polling at a record 22 per cent as the preferred prime minister, just below Jacinda Ardern at 30 per cent according to the 1 News/Kantar polls.
All other previous Leaders after the 2017 elections had always trailed at abysmally low of under-fives even during the heydays of National polling at high 40’s between 2017-2020.
The party, along with its Centre-Right ally ACT Party, is currently polling at 48 per cent ahead of the Labour-led Left coalition trailing at 42 per cent and would form a government if elections were held now.
However, this change of fortune can fast revert if Luxon continues to make avoidable mistakes.
Luxon is already making too many “genuine mistakes” with the latest being related to the Sam Uffindell saga, where he acknowledged that his staff was alerted by the fellow MP and National Party’s campaign chair for Tauranga electorate Todd McClay about a red flag on Uffindell’s references. However, the staff had chosen not to keep Luxon informed in real-time on this important issue.
This has come in the backdrop of other sloppiness from Luxon’s staff not too long ago when a video posted on his social media page implied that he was visiting Te Puke on that day, whereas in reality, he was holidaying with his family in Hawaii.
Consequently, Luxon was seen apologising on national radio on the first day after parliament recess, seemingly suggesting New Zealanders to ignore the “genuine mistakes” of his staffer.
The speed and uprightness with which Luxon fronts up the media and takes responsibility for “genuine mistakes” mostly of others have so far eliminated any potential hit on Party’s poll numbers, largely keeping his brand image as an “outsider” intact.
Yet, he has to realise that any favourable public approval is not a finite resource and could suddenly erode, often without much warning.
Specially, when episodes like the Uffindell saga rub into the long-running reputational issue with the National Party’s candidate selection process.
The head start that Luxon got, and was not available to his immediate predecessors, was for his brand image of being an “outsider” – which largely meant that he would remain outside of National’s often detested political machinery that ends up propping aggressive, alpha male types with a boisterous outlook toward the rest of the world.
However, if Luxon is seen as someone unwilling to, or incapable of taming those imperious political forces within the National Party, then he will soon lose that head start and the poll numbers will begin to tumble.
The rise in the latest poll numbers is largely driven by a real cost-of-living crisis and New Zealanders’ growing sense of gloom over the country’s economic outlook in the near future.
It will be unfortunate for the party if the focus of the voters returning back to the Party’s fold after two long years of exodus is once again distracted from real issues affecting New Zealanders to the preparedness of the party to offer a genuine challenge to the government in next elections.